Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is still following the same midterm-year pattern it has followed in past cycles. His main point is simple: Bitcoin often bottoms in February, rallies in March, and then forms a lower high before weakening again later in the year.
Key Points
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Bitcoin found a low in February 2026 and then bounced, which Cowen says matches 2014, 2018, and 2022.
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On his historical comparison chart, 2026 is still trading within the normal midterm-year range, so he does not see this move as something unusual.
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He notes that some short-term indicators look more bullish, but bigger bear market indicators still suggest the bottom may not be fully in.
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For example, Bitcoin has not yet gone below the realized price and balance price, which it usually does near major bear market lows.
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He also points to the MVRV Z-Score, saying it has not yet reached the kind of deeper washout seen in prior bear markets.
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Cowen says Bitcoin could still rally more in March, and even move toward the $80K to $83K bear market resistance area, without breaking the broader bearish structure.
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He compares the current setup most closely to 2022, where Bitcoin rallied after a February low, swept early March highs, and then rolled over again into April and May.
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His view is that Bitcoin may still put in a March lower high, then weaken again into spring or summer.
Final Takeaway
Cowen is not saying Bitcoin cannot rally more from here. He is saying that, based on past midterm years, this still looks more like a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market. His base case remains the same: February low, March bounce, then another leg of weakness later in the year.
