Benjamin Cowen looks at Bitcoin’s recent weakness and warns against getting too optimistic too early. His focus is on midterm-year patterns and how Bitcoin typically behaves during bear markets. The main message: even if we get a bounce soon, that does not mean the bear market is over.
Key Points
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February weakness is common in midterm years. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin sold off into February, bounced in early March, then dropped again into April or May.
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A short-term move up in early March would not be unusual. Historically, the first week of March often marks a local top, not the final bottom.
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Bitcoin usually follows a familiar moving average path. It breaks below the 50-week, then the 100-week, and eventually tests the 200-week moving average. That pattern is playing out again.
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True bear market bottoms tend to happen below key on-chain levels. In prior cycles, Bitcoin bottomed after dropping below both realized price and balance price. So far, it has not clearly done that.
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Being 50% down in February does not automatically mean the low is in. In past cycles, deeper drawdowns often came later in the year.
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Potential timing for a real bottom could be May or even October, based on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle behavior.
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s view is cautious. A bounce into March would fit historical patterns, but it likely would not mark the end of the bear market. Until Bitcoin tests deeper support levels and more typical capitulation signals appear, he sees rallies as countertrend moves rather than confirmation of a new bull phase.
