Benjamin Cowen breaks down the three psychological stages of a bear market and explains why Bitcoin just entered the final one.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Stage one runs from October 2025 to February 2026, only a handful of people believed it was a bear market because everyone was still conditioned to buy dips
- Stage two runs from February to June 2026, roughly half the market accepted the bear market while the other half kept clinging to M2 charts and super cycle hopes
- Bitcoin breaking below the February low just ended stage two and confirmed stage three, the phase where the majority finally accepts the bear market is real
- Each stage has lasted roughly four months, which puts the final low somewhere in October 2026, right on schedule
- When poll numbers hit 75 to 80 percent bearish that is historically the signal the bottom is near, right now it is only around 60 to 65 percent bearish meaning there is still more pain ahead
- The bear market ends when absolutely everyone believes in it, that capitulation in sentiment is what actually marks the bottom, not any technical indicator
Takeaway The bulls who ignored the bear market for eight months are only just now turning bearish. That is not a bottom signal, it is a mid cycle signal. The real opportunity comes when even the most stubborn bears finally give up, and that moment is still a few months away.
