Benjamin Cowen reacts to a key technical event - Bitcoin just closed below its 50-week moving average, a level that often signals major cycle shifts. He explores whether this marks the top of the bull market or just a short-term fakeout.
Key Points – Benjamin’s Outlook
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Historical signal of cycle tops – In past post-halving years, Bitcoin closing below the 50-week MA usually preceded deeper bear market drops. It’s a serious red flag that can’t be ignored.
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Still room for doubt – One close isn’t enough for confirmation. Cowen says two consecutive weekly closes below this line would increase the odds to 70% that the cycle top is in.
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No euphoria phase yet – Unlike previous bull tops, this one feels more like apathy than mania, resembling 2019’s muted peak. That makes the current drop unusual and harder to interpret.
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Death cross timing matters – Death crosses (when the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day) sometimes mark local bottoms, but not always. Cowen warns this time might differ.
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A rally to the 200-day MA likely – Even if the top is in, he expects a bounce back toward the 200-day moving average at some point, which could be around $60K–$70K.
Final Takeaway
Cowen leans cautiously bearish. The first weekly close below the 50-week moving average is a warning, and a second would strongly suggest the top is in. Still, he believes rallies are possible - even likely - before deeper corrections. Whether it’s a real breakdown or a fakeout, the next few days will be key.
