Bitcoin Enters a Window of Weakness – Will It Recover?
Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below the bull market support band, explaining why this cycle is behaving differently from past ones and what key levels to watch.
1. Bitcoin’s Support Band Break – A Rare Event
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has closed below the bull market support band, something that historically only happened in the third quarter of past cycles.
- This deviation from previous cycles raises questions about Bitcoin’s short-term strength.
- The one-year ROI is declining, contrasting with 2017 when it continued rising into March.
2. Bitcoin’s Trajectory vs. Past Cycles
Key Highlights:
- Measured from the low, Bitcoin is now underperforming the 2016–2017 cycle.
- Measured from the peak, however, Bitcoin is still slightly ahead of the 2016–2017 cycle.
- If Bitcoin follows the same trajectory, it could retest $69K (the prior all-time high) and still remain within a healthy uptrend.
3. The Stock Market Connection – Bitcoin’s Macro Risk
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin’s drop aligns with stock market weakness, especially in post-election years, which historically see a rough January to March period.
- Recession fears are growing, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting negative GDP.
- The S&P 500 has erased all its post-election gains, while Bitcoin has yet to do so but could.
4. Key Bitcoin Levels – Where’s the Danger Zone?
📌 Above $73K = Business as usual, potential for recovery
📌 A wick to $69K = Still within normal cycle behavior
📌 Below $62K = Macro lower high likely, cycle could be over
5. Final Take – Bitcoin in a Window of Weakness
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has entered a period of high risk and volatility that could last through March options expiration or even into early April.
- The most important factor: How low Bitcoin goes in the next two weeks will determine if this is a right-translated cycle (bullish) or a left-translated cycle (bearish).
- If Bitcoin dips into the low $60Ks, it could indicate the cycle top is already in.
- If it holds above $73K, there is still a strong chance for a continued rally later this year.
🚨 Bottom Line: Bitcoin’s weakness aligns with broader market conditions. Short-term downside is possible, but if Bitcoin stays above key levels, the cycle could still have more room to run.
