Benjamin Cowen breaks down what actually happens after Bitcoin hits the 200 week moving average and why the next few weeks are critical.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Every single cycle Bitcoin drops below the 50 week, then the 100 week, then the 200 week moving average in order, and right on schedule it has now tagged the 200 week at 61.8K
- We already wicked below it once, and last cycle Bitcoin broke through it entirely, so assuming it holds as support would be a mistake
- A June low is likely but if it only holds around 57 to 62K it proves nothing, both 2018 and 2022 had convincing June lows before a much worse Q4 drop followed
- The Bank of Japan raising rates in mid June is the real macro trigger to watch, not Saylor selling, as BOJ hikes historically unwind the carry trade and hit crypto hard
- The 300 week moving average sits around 54K, right near the realized price, and last cycle Bitcoin actually tagged it before bouncing
Takeaway Expect a low in June, a quiet drift higher through July, and then a final reckoning in Q4. The 200 week moving average is not the finish line. It is the starting gun for the last phase of the bear market.
