Benjamin Cowen discusses Bitcoin's price action and expectations surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. He observes that Bitcoin has been bouncing between a well-defined range, with resistance around $70,000 and support in the low $60,000s.
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Cowen analyzes previous FOMC meetings, noting that in two out of the last three instances, Bitcoin found a local low on the day of the meeting. However, he cautions that the most recent FOMC coincided with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which may have affected the pattern.
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Regarding the upcoming FOMC, Cowen believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates. He states, "The market seems fairly convinced right now that there's going to be a rate cut in September," but warns that a hot inflation print could change this expectation. Cowen emphasizes that the Fed has been consistent in its actions over the past two years, making a surprise rate cut unlikely.
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Cowen also discusses the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. He argues that regardless of Bitcoin's price direction, altcoins are likely to underperform Bitcoin in the current market cycle. He supports this view by pointing out that even as Bitcoin has fluctuated, altcoin pairs against Bitcoin have consistently declined.
In conclusion, Cowen advises viewers to consider multiple scenarios, including both bullish and bearish outcomes for Bitcoin following the FOMC meeting. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader market dynamics and maintaining a balanced perspective on potential outcomes.
