Benjamin Cowen takes a data-driven look at the crypto market and concludes that retail investors haven’t returned yet. Despite recent rallies, the signals just aren’t there.
Here’s his key view:
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Retail hasn’t arrived – Metrics like social risk, YouTube views, Twitter activity, and Google Trends all show weak engagement. According to Ben, this cycle is still institution-led, not retail-driven like 2017 or 2021.
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Bitcoin dominance continues – With retail absent, Bitcoin and Ethereum are doing well, but most altcoins are lagging. Ben sees strength in BTC and ETH only, with other coins rotating in and out of relevance briefly.
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Social risk is low – This metric, which tracks crypto buzz online, is stuck around 0.1 out of 1.0. That’s far below past bull markets. Unless it starts forming higher lows, Ben doubts a major retail wave is coming soon.
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Altcoin struggles are visible – He points to the declining advanced-decline index, showing most top 100 coins are trending down, even if the total market cap rises due to strong performance from BTC and ETH.
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Bottom line – Ben still leans Bitcoin-heavy. He added some ETH since April but says it’s still too early to go heavy into alts. Until retail shows real signs of returning, he’s not expecting altcoin season anytime soon.
