Benjamin Cowen explains that Bitcoin’s recent rally looks strong, but may just be a typical bear market bounce. His view is that the bigger trend still points to weakness.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin often rallies during downtrends, especially in midterm years, without starting a new bull market
- This current move looks similar to past cycles like 2018 and 2022, where rallies were followed by further drops
- Tools like Heikin-Ashi candles help remove noise and still show a consistent bearish trend overall
- Even strong multi-week rallies can happen inside a larger downtrend and mislead investors
- Seasonality suggests Bitcoin could weaken again in May or June before finding a more solid bottom
- In past cycles, the real bottom often came later in the year, sometimes around October
- Stock market strength does not guarantee Bitcoin will follow, as both have diverged in previous cycles
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s message is simple, this rally could be temporary. Unless the trend clearly changes, Bitcoin may still move lower before a true bottom is formed.
