Benjamin Cowen breaks down why the next couple of months are critical for Bitcoin.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Social interest sits at 0.2 right now, less than half of where it was four years ago, but nearly identical to August 2018, this apathy has happened before
- The typical pattern is a summer low, a bounce, then volatility drying up through July to September before some event near year end wakes the market back up
- Key on chain indicators like the MVRV Z-score have not dropped below zero yet, the level that historically marks past bottoms
- Bitcoin remains squeezed between the 200 day moving average and the bear market resistance band, a squeeze that should force a decision soon, likely a breakdown based on prior midterm years
Takeaway October remains the most likely month for a low, though it could land anywhere from late September to December. Crunch time is close, stay alert rather than complacent.
