Benjamin Cowen ties together multiple cycle charts to show why everything playing out right now is far less unusual than it feels.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Based on the ROI from the cycle low, Bitcoin is currently on day 1333 while the last two cycles bottomed on days 1432 and 1436, pointing to a final low roughly 100 days away
- The structure mirrors both 2018 and 2019 at the same time, structurally it matches 2018 with the same February low, May rejection, and June sweep, while the business cycle and lack of altcoin rotation feels more like 2019
- Social interest is sitting around 0.25 on the risk metric, exactly where it was in July 2018, with crypto YouTube views averaging 350,000 per day versus over a million in July 2022, confirming this cycle is closer to 2018 in terms of sentiment
- The dollar is tracking Trump's first term almost identically, and a stronger dollar later this year remains a headwind for Bitcoin just as it was back then
- Price based capitulation like 2020 would have needed to happen around June to justify an earlier low, it did not happen, so time based capitulation remains the base case pointing to Q4
Takeaway Nothing about this cycle is as unusual as it feels. The charts keep saying the same thing and the best strategy remains DCAing through the second half of the midterm year rather than trying to time the exact bottom.
