Benjamin Cowen takes a deep dive into Bitcoin’s market cycle and asks the big question: has the top already formed, or is there one final push left? He leans on historical cycles, macro comparisons, and technical indicators to lay out possible paths forward as we head into Q4 2025.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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Four-year cycle still in play – Cowen sees consistent Bitcoin cycle tops in Q4 of every post-halving year: 2013, 2017, 2021, and possibly 2025.
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Don’t assume it’s different this time – While some indicators haven’t flashed yet, he warns not to ignore the historical Q4 topping pattern.
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No top indicators triggered yet – Metrics like MVRV-Z score and terminal price have not hit typical cycle highs, suggesting there might be room left for a final rally.
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Altcoins will bleed unless BTC hits new highs – Without a breakout from Bitcoin, altcoins will likely underperform or decline in BTC terms.
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Key support level: 50-week moving average – Weekly closes below ~$100K would strongly suggest the top is in and a bear market has begun.
Final Takeaway
Cowen remains cautiously optimistic. If Bitcoin can hold above the 50-week moving average and push higher into Q4, another leg up is possible. But if not, the top may already be in. Either way, he advises staying focused on BTC for now, and not getting complacent as we enter the most critical quarter of the cycle.
