Benjamin Cowen breaks down Bitcoin’s market cycles by looking at past patterns to understand where we might be now.
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Cycle Timing: Previous Bitcoin cycles lasted around 1,060 days from bottom to top. We’re currently just over 1,000 days in, which points to the possibility of a peak later this year, likely in Q4. But history shows tops have varied between November and December, so exact timing is uncertain.
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Halving Measure: Another way to track cycles is by looking at days after the Bitcoin halving. The last two cycles peaked about 525-546 days after the halving. We’re now around day 489, so again, a potential top could be coming in the next few months.
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Diminishing Returns: Each cycle has shown smaller returns compared to the last. Bitcoin tends to run ahead of schedule, stall for months, then catch back up to past cycle trends. This cycle has followed that same pattern.
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Takeaway: While no one can call the exact top, history suggests we’re entering the window where Bitcoin could peak. Staying cautious and aware of diminishing returns is key.
