Bitcoin’s Market Cycles: Where Are We Headed?
Benjamin Cowen dives deep into Bitcoin’s historical market cycles and whether this cycle will be right translated (bullish) or left translated (bearish). With macroeconomic forces at play, Bitcoin’s next move could define the cycle’s trajectory.
1. Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Patterns – What’s Normal?
Bitcoin’s past three cycles have all been right translated, meaning:
✅ Three-year bull market followed by a one-year bear market
✅ Major lows happening in midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022)
✅ Peak occurring one year before the bear market bottom
This pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s peak should happen later this year if it follows history.
2. The Risk of a Left Translated Cycle – What Would Cause It?
A left translated cycle would mean Bitcoin peaked early and will face a prolonged bear market. Factors that could trigger this:
⚠️ Rising inflation or unemployment → Historically leads to left translated cycles
⚠️ Stock market instability → Could drag Bitcoin down
⚠️ Policy uncertainty → U.S. election year and tariffs are adding to market volatility
If Bitcoin falls into the $60K range, Cowen warns that this could signal a left translated cycle with a macro lower high later in the year before a deeper decline in 2026.
3. Bitcoin’s Key Levels – Right or Left Translated?
🔹 Above $73K = Right translated cycle is still in play
🔹 Below $73K but above 2024 highs = Still room for recovery
🔹 Drop to $60K = Left translated cycle likely confirmed
4. The ETF Connection – Is Bitcoin Repeating the QQQ?
Cowen points out Bitcoin’s ETF cycle is mirroring the QQQ ETF launch in 1999, which:
📌 Peaked 54 weeks after launch
📌 Dropped sharply before a multi-month countertrend rally
📌 Eventually rolled over into a deeper correction
If history repeats, Bitcoin could drop into the $60Ks, then bounce into a macro lower high by Q2/Q3 2025, before a potential 2026 recession.
5. How to Position Your Portfolio?
💰 Cash on hand (hedging for a potential drop)
📊 Focus on Bitcoin over altcoins (alts typically suffer more in bearish cycles)
🕵️ Watch macro indicators – Unemployment and inflation will be key signals
Final Take:
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. If it holds above $73K, a right translated cycle with new highs is still in play. If it drops into the $60K range, expect a left translated cycle with a deeper bear market ahead. The next two weeks will be crucial.
