Benjamin Cowen explains why the current macro environment after the FOMC meeting still looks bearish for Bitcoin, mainly due to late-cycle economic pressure.
Key Points
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The Fed is stuck: weak labor market suggests rate cuts, but rising energy prices keep inflation high, preventing them.
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Cowen sees the economy in a late business cycle, where risk assets like crypto usually underperform.
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Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, are a negative signal in this phase.
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Bitcoin is repeating a familiar pattern: February low → March rally → likely lower high, seen in past cycles.
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These rallies are usually counter-trend, not the start of a new bull market.
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Mid-cycle years often break down later, even after short-term strength.
Final Takeaway
This is likely just a temporary rally, with Bitcoin still following its historical cycle rather than entering a new uptrend.
