Cowen says Bitcoin is still on track and following the same rhythm we’ve seen in past cycles. The Fed’s rate cut helps, but September could bring turbulence before the next leg up.
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Cycle outlook: Bitcoin is holding above the 20-week SMA, just like in past cycles where September dips were followed by breakouts in October or November.
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Near term: He expects a short bounce, then a small pullback in late September or early October, before Bitcoin attempts new highs.
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Risk level: Weekly closes below the 50-week SMA (around 98K) would be a red flag that the cycle might be ending.
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Macro backdrop: The Fed is likely to cut again in October and December, moving rates toward neutral. That could mark the timing of a cycle top.
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Market link: A 5–6% stock market cooldown or a bounce in yields and the dollar could delay Bitcoin’s breakout, but BTC dominance may rise in that case.
Bottom line: Cowen’s outlook is bullish into October and beyond, but he warns to expect a small pullback first and to watch the 50-week SMA as the key safety line.
