Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s recent rally still looks like a normal bear market bounce, not the start of a new bull run.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Cowen says bear markets often trap both bulls and bears because prices can rise for months before falling again
- He compares the current market to 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022, where Bitcoin had strong rallies before making new lows
- Bitcoin is again struggling near the 200-day moving average, a level that stopped rallies in past bear markets
- He says previous bear market rallies often reached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before reversing lower
- June has historically been a major turning point for Bitcoin, either marking a temporary top or bottom
- Cowen expects Bitcoin could still decline into Q4 2026, similar to past midterm-year cycles
- He believes another stock market correction later this year could push Bitcoin into a second major selloff
- Cowen also notes Bitcoin has underperformed gold, stocks, and energy markets this year despite recent rebounds
Final Takeaway
Cowen believes the current rally may simply be another convincing bear market bounce before Bitcoin eventually moves lower later in the year.
