Benjamin Cowen explains that Bitcoin’s recent rally is approaching key resistance levels, but he still views the broader trend as bearish. His main view is that short-term strength does not change the bigger picture.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin recently rallied into the bear market resistance band, a level that has historically rejected price during downtrends
- A short-term breakout is still possible, but even if it happens, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained move to new highs
- In past cycles, Bitcoin often briefly moves above resistance before eventually rolling over again
- The 200-day moving average is the next key level, which typically acts as strong resistance in bear markets
- Midterm election years tend to follow a pattern, early strength followed by weakness later in the year
- Current price action is tracking similar patterns to 2018, where a temporary rally was followed by further downside
- Even if Bitcoin stays strong for a few more weeks, Cowen expects lower prices later in the year
Final Takeaway
Short-term rallies can happen, but the trend still looks bearish. Until key resistance levels are clearly broken, the expectation remains that Bitcoin will likely move lower over time.
