Benjamin Cowen argues that expecting a significant Bitcoin correction is not extreme, it is a realistic view based on past cycles. He sees the current market as a typical bear phase rather than a breakdown.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin likely topped near $126K and has already dropped about 50%, signaling a bear market phase
- His base case is a ~70% total correction, which matches how Bitcoin behaved in previous cycles
- This would put a potential bottom roughly in the $30K to $50K range
- Even non-euphoric tops in the past still led to deep drawdowns, so a large drop is not unusual
- Macro conditions matter, with signs pointing to a late economic cycle and possible recession ahead
- Several key indicators that usually confirm a market bottom have not triggered yet
- The “doomer” scenario is not 70%, but a deeper and longer decline driven by broader market weakness
Final Takeaway
A 70% drop would be normal for Bitcoin, not extreme. If that plays out, it could offer a strong long-term buying opportunity, even if sentiment turns very negative.
