Benjamin Cowen breaks down the latest market structure, with Bitcoin managing to stay above its 50-week moving average. While that's a bullish signal short-term, he warns not to get overly excited - a deeper pullback could still be coming in 2026, even if BTC hits new highs before then.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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BTC Holds Key Support – Bitcoin bounced from $98K to $106K and remains above the 50-week moving average, a positive sign for now.
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No Crystal Ball – Cowen emphasizes the uncertainty of indicators. Time-based metrics suggest limited upside, while sentiment tools still leave room for a top.
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Possible 2026 Dip Ahead – Even if BTC rallies further, he expects a 2026 correction - not an 80% crash, but potentially a 50% decline from the next peak.
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Altcoin Warning – Cowen remains cautious on alts. Dominance is up 8 weeks in a row, and historical patterns suggest they’ll bleed back to Bitcoin after any relief bounce.
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Long-Term Cycle Still Intact – He believes the four-year cycle is playing out, but this version may include a softer, delayed drawdown.
Final Takeaway
Cowen is cautiously bullish short-term but preparing for a healthy correction in 2026. Bitcoin remains the focus - not altcoins.
