Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average still fits his broader bear market thesis.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- The 200-day moving average acted as resistance in previous bear markets like 2018 and 2022
- Cowen believes Bitcoin could still rally toward the $85K range, matching the typical 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level seen in past cycles
- He compares the current market to 2014 and 2019, where strong counter-trend rallies eventually failed and led to new lows
- His main expectation remains weakness into Q4 2026, with October as a possible cycle bottom
- Cowen says tight monetary policy and a potential stock market correction are still major risks for Bitcoin
- He also argues Bitcoin is currently being supported by the stock market rally rather than strong crypto fundamentals
Final Takeaway
Cowen remains cautious despite recent strength, believing this could still be a temporary bear market rally before another larger decline later in 2026.
