Benjamin Cowen breaks down one of the most uncanny parallels in Bitcoin history and explains why the simplest strategy has continued to outperform everything else.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin just bottomed at exactly 57,000 on July 1st, in 2018 the equivalent low was 5,743, same level, same time of year, a decade apart
- The pattern has tracked perfectly, February low, higher low in late March, lower high in May, then a sweep of the February low in late June to early July, identical to 2018
- A counter trend rally into late July or August is now the most likely next move, probably back toward the bear market resistance band and 200 day moving average, but confirmation requires a higher low first
- The final market cycle bottom still most likely comes in Q4 when a stock market correction drags Bitcoin down one last time, same as 2018 and 2022
- Ignoring Bitcoin for the entire first half of the midterm year was the right call, a new low printed on the very first day of the second half
Takeaway None of the macro narratives mattered. No inflation data, no money supply charts, no ISM readings changed what Bitcoin was always going to do. The four year cycle keeps playing out and overcomplicating it keeps costing people money.
