Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is following the same midterm-year pattern again: February low, early March rally, then rejection.
Key Points
-
BTC formed a February low, rallied in early March, and then quickly rejected, matching past midterm cycles.
-
Cowen says the market keeps following the average return pattern of prior midterm years despite changing news narratives.
-
Similar setups appeared in 2014, 2018, and 2022: bounce in March, then weakness into April or later.
-
2026 currently looks closest to 2014, where BTC rallied briefly, went sideways, then dropped again.
-
He argues most explanations people give for moves (macro, news, narratives) are irrelevant compared to the cycle structure.
-
The four-year cycle keeps working, and traders who ignore it often get caught expecting a new bull market too early.
-
In midterm years, the goal should be wealth preservation, not aggressive risk taking.
Final Takeaway
Bitcoin is behaving almost exactly like past midterm years. The early March rally was likely just a temporary bounce, and Cowen expects more downside or weakness later in the year.
