Benjamin Cowen breaks down why social interest in crypto keeps falling and why this cycle is starting to look a lot like the quiet aftermath of 2019.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Major crypto YouTube channels are now losing 400 to 500 subscribers a week on average, a sharp reversal from gaining 40 to 60 thousand a week back in 2021, proof that retail has genuinely walked away
- This mirrors 2019 almost exactly, both years saw three rate cuts of 75 basis points total, and Bitcoin topped just two months before quantitative tightening ended in both cycles
- Back in 2019 retail only returned once a crisis forced much looser monetary policy, but this time the AI trade is keeping stocks at all time highs, so the Fed has no urgency to cut rates
- Without looser policy there is no reason for social interest to recover, and as a result many 2021 altcoins have now fallen below their 2022 lows with no fresh wave of new coins masking the damage
- As social interest keeps falling, Bitcoin dominance keeps climbing, the same relationship that played out for years after the last apathetic top
Takeaway Retail left because the industry spent the last cycle chasing memecoins and hype instead of building anything worth owning. Social interest likely bottoms out later this year, but it only comes back once monetary policy actually loosens, and right now there is no rush for that to happen.
