Benjamin Cowen explains that Bitcoin has recently touched its range low around 90k and bounced off it. In his view, this kind of movement is not unusual. Throughout the current market cycle, Bitcoin has set lows, rallied to higher levels without enough demand to push it further, and then returned to sweep previous lows before attempting a new climb. He highlights many past examples where Bitcoin formed a low, went up, and then dropped back to the same area before bouncing again.
He is paying special attention to whether Bitcoin can overcome a lower high near 100k. If it breaks through that level, he believes the market might see further upside. However, if it fails to break 100k and falls below 90k for an extended period, he thinks it could follow a path where Bitcoin slowly grinds down to test even lower levels. Cowen sees the ten-year yield as a major factor. If yields keep rising, it may create a headwind for Bitcoin and increase the possibility of a deeper pullback.
He also mentions seasonality. In the past, January has been a time when Bitcoin corrects before eventually bouncing higher. He recalls January 2017, when a meaningful drop ended by mid-January and Bitcoin spent the next several weeks climbing until March. Another example was January 2021, although not every year follows the exact same pattern.
Cowen believes that as long as Bitcoin remains above 90k, it will favor a healthier uptrend. He compares this moment to times in the past when sweeping a low led to decent rebounds. Ultimately, he sees 100k as the next critical barrier. Breaking that level would signal greater strength in Bitcoin, while failing to do so might leave the door open for more downside.
