Cowen explains where the crypto market stands right now and why this cycle feels weaker than previous ones.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- The total crypto market is still well below “fair value” (around ~50% under), which shows how weak this cycle has been
- The cycle followed the usual pattern early on, but missed the final euphoric phase, especially the strong altcoin rally that normally pushes prices higher
- Without that euphoria, the market dropped into much lower valuations, similar to levels seen in 2015 or even earlier cycles
- Cowen expects the market could still drop further toward the lower trend line (~$1.5T total market cap) before finding a proper bottom
- The main reason for weakness is macro:
→ Rising inflation and unemployment
→ Weak economy = less risk-taking
→ Markets top on apathy instead of excitement - Long term, he still believes crypto will grow significantly and could reach ~$10T market cap, but not in this cycle
Final Takeaway
Crypto isn’t over, it’s just early in a weaker phase. The market likely hasn’t bottomed yet, but long-term growth is still intact, just slower than many expected.
