Benjamin Cowen checks in on Bitcoin's logarithmic regression fair value model and explains why the entire crypto market is likely to stay sluggish for the rest of the year before a real bull market builds in 2027.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- The total crypto market cap has dropped to around 2.1 trillion, slightly below where it was in 2021, erasing most of the 2023 to 2025 move in the process
- The entire cycle played out exactly like 2019, Bitcoin dominance rose, rate cuts happened, QT ended, and altcoins never got their rotation, all the same ingredients, all the same outcome
- The market is currently well below its logarithmic regression fair value trend line, a level this far below fair value has not been seen since 2010 in terms of duration
- The base case is a counter trend rally this summer followed by one more low later in the year before a proper bull market builds through 2027 and 2028
Takeaway Nothing about this cycle needed to be complicated. It tracked 2019 almost perfectly from start to finish. The math still points to crypto eventually reaching 10 trillion, the only question is how much patience it takes to get there.
