In this video, Benjamin Cowen takes a balanced approach, laying out both the bull and bear cases for Bitcoin heading into 2026. His focus is on time-based indicators, past cycles, and the current market's lack of euphoria. While he doesn’t claim to know the future, he believes history offers some strong clues.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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Bearish signs from history – Every previous Bitcoin cycle topped in Q4 of the post-halving year, and we just closed a weekly candle below the 50-week moving average, which has historically signaled the start of a bear market.
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No signs of euphoria – Unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle lacks retail hype. Social interest is low, and Cowen compares the current environment to 2019 - a slower, more apathetic top.
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Possible 50% correction – Without extreme euphoria, Cowen argues a more modest 50% pullback is likely, putting Bitcoin’s bottom between $60K and $70K in 2026, aligning with the 200-week moving average.
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Macro still matters – Even if QT ends in December, Cowen says we might still see pain first. The Fed may hold off on aggressive rate cuts until after Powell leaves in mid-2026.
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Bulls aren’t out of the game – If Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week MA soon, there’s still time for a December rally. But if not, a drawn-out correction is likely.
Final Takeaway
Cowen sees valid arguments on both sides. But from a time-based and macro lens, he leans toward a 2026 bear market with a moderate correction - not a crash. Whether bulls or bears "win" may come down to how the market digests this next phase of monetary policy.
