Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still playing out normally, even though many investors claim it has broken.
Key Points
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Bitcoin topped in Q4 2025, the same timing as previous cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
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Measured from cycle bottom to peak, this cycle ended within days of previous ones, showing the pattern still holds.
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The current bear market structure also looks familiar: Bitcoin trends up for months, then quickly drops to new lows.
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In past cycles, Bitcoin often bottoms in February, rallies into March, then falls again later in the year.
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Several indicators that historically mark the final bottom have not triggered yet, suggesting more downside is possible.
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Cowen warns that bullish narratives about institutions and ETFs existed before the recent 50% drop as well.
Final Takeaway
Cowen believes nothing has fundamentally changed. Bitcoin still appears to be following its traditional four-year cycle, and the bear market may not be finished yet.
