Benjamin Cowen makes a clear case for why Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is still very much alive, pushing back against the popular belief that ETFs and institutional buying have changed everything.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin topped almost to the day when it historically always does, matching prior cycles within one week
- Topping quietly without euphoria does not mean a bear market can't follow, the stock market did the same thing in the 1960s
- The current rally off the lows is actually weaker than what we saw during the 2022 bear market, not stronger
- Price action today is tracking 2018 and 2022 almost move for move, a low in February, a higher low in April, a peak in May
- Rallies lasting 16 weeks are completely normal in bear markets, past cycles saw them stretch to 25 weeks before new lows hit
- Every single time Bitcoin has rallied to the 200-day moving average during a bear market, it has eventually rolled over
Takeaway The 4-year cycle has been called dead before and it proved everyone wrong. Right now the data still points to another leg down, with a possible final low somewhere around October 2026. Betting against the cycle has never worked out well.
