Benjamin Cowen breaks down why everything that has happened this year continues to track 2018 almost perfectly, and why the critics who mocked the four year cycle are now running out of arguments.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- February low, higher low in late March, lower high in May at the 200 day moving average, sweep of the February low in June at exactly 57,000, Bitcoin in 2026 has matched 2018 move for move, just at 10x the price
- July historically offers a brief window of strength in midterm years, likely a counter trend rally back toward the 200 day moving average before giving it all back in August and September
- The reason this cycle feels worse than 2018 is not because it is worse, it is because there was no euphoric top or altcoin rotation, Bitcoin topped on apathy at 126K instead of euphoria at 200K
- October is the most likely month for the final market cycle bottom since the top was in October and bear markets historically last about one year
Takeaway The four year cycle keeps playing out because nobody has found a reason compelling enough to break it. Defer to it until it proves you wrong, and so far it has not come close to doing that.
