Benjamin Cowen breaks down why mid August to mid October is historically Bitcoin's weakest window and why it lines up with when the cycle low should hit.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin drops an average of 10% in August and 8% in September, being green early in the month means nothing since 2022 followed the same pattern before giving it all back
- Prior cycle bottoms have landed roughly one month earlier each cycle, extrapolating that trend points to late September through October for this cycle's low
- This cycle mirrors 2018 almost exactly just at 10x the price, the only real difference is topping on apathy instead of euphoria, which explains why altcoins never rotated
- Past bear markets lasted 52 to 59 weeks, meaning the low could land anywhere from early October to late November depending on which cycle this resembles most
Takeaway October remains the most likely month for the bottom, but the next 60 days will show whether Bitcoin breaks down on schedule or grinds sideways into November instead. Either way, DCAing beats trying to time the exact bottom.
