Benjamin Cowen just went over a pattern that Bitcoin has followed in every post halving year so far - 2013, 2017, and 2021. It’s surprisingly simple:
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July and August - Bitcoin tends to go up.
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September - There’s usually a pullback down to the 20 week SMA (the “bull market support band”).
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October to Q4 - A final rally pushes Bitcoin to the market cycle top.
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Next Year - A bear market hits.
So far in 2025, Bitcoin has been green in July and August, which fits the first step. If the pattern holds, we could see a dip in September, then one last push to new highs before the cycle ends later this year.
The catch? Each cycle’s post-September rally has been weaker than the last - first around 1000%, then 500%, then only 70% in 2021. That means we should keep our expectations in check.
Cowen also warns that altcoins usually struggle during this phase, especially compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Many alts still haven’t hit their “range lows” yet, so they may bleed more before they can recover.
Bottom line - watch September closely, manage expectations, and remember that in bull markets, Bitcoin usually leads the way.
