Benjamin Cowen explains why bear markets in Bitcoin are often confusing and why many investors mistake temporary rallies for the start of a new bull run.
Key Points
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In a bear market, Bitcoin often trends upward for long periods, then suddenly drops to a new low in a short capitulation.
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This creates false optimism because the market can rise for weeks or months before breaking down again.
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Cowen says this pattern leads many analysts and influencers to call new bull markets too early.
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Current price action still shows a bear market structure, with Bitcoin forming higher lows temporarily before breaking down again.
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Historically, similar patterns appeared in past cycles, where February lows were not the final bottom.
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Cowen also warns against following “price cheerleaders”, who stay bullish regardless of market conditions instead of managing risk.
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Even strong narratives like ETFs, institutional demand, or macro trends do not stop Bitcoin from falling in a bear market.
Final Takeaway
Cowen believes Bitcoin still looks like it’s in a bear market structure. The key strategy during this phase is risk management and capital preservation, so investors are ready when the next true bull market begins.
