Benjamin Cowen maps out exactly where Bitcoin is in its bear market cycle right now and why the next few months are going to test even the most patient holders.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin got rejected precisely at the 200 day moving average, the exact same level it found resistance in both 2018 and 2022 without exception
- Every single first half of a midterm year has seen Bitcoin drop, 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026 are all following the same script
- A low in June is the most likely next stop based on historical patterns, followed by a relief rally in July that will fool a lot of people into thinking the bottom is in
- The Bank of Japan raising rates in June is the wildcard to watch, not the Fed, as it was a BOJ rate hike that triggered Bitcoin's last major low in August 2024
- After the July bounce there is likely one final drop in September or October before the real cycle bottom is established
- The best strategy across every single midterm year has simply been to ignore Bitcoin in the first half and start paying attention again in the second half
Takeaway Bitcoin is not broken, it is just doing what it always does in midterm years. The worst thing you can do right now is panic sell a June low or get swept up in a July rally. The real opportunity most likely comes in Q4, and until then patience is the only edge that actually matters.
