Bitcoin is entering a typical weak phase in the cycle, with downside likely before any meaningful recovery.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Midterm years are historically bearish after Q4 cycle tops
- Pattern is repeating:
Key Highlights:
- February low → March rally → lower high
- March rally matches past cycles (2014, 2018, 2022)
- Now entering the “window of weakness” (late March → early April)
- Base case:
Key Highlights:
- Another drop → new low in early April
- Key scenarios:
Key Highlights:
- Below $60K → low could hold for months
- Above $60K → weakness likely continues into summer
- Important levels:
Key Highlights:
- ~$54K (realized price) → commonly breaks
- ~$39K (balance price) → typical bear market bottom zone
- Full downside range:
Key Highlights:
- ~$30K–$50K depending on severity
- Expect structure, not crash:
Key Highlights:
- Lower highs + lower lows, not straight down
Final Takeaway
Short-term downside is likely, with April as a key window for the next low, but the broader bearish structure is still intact.
