Benjamin Cowen looks at how Bitcoin usually finds its cycle bottoms. Instead of price predictions, he focuses on one simple on-chain metric: how many holders are in profit versus loss.
Key Points
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Bitcoin bottoms tend to form every four years, often during midterm years
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Cowen tracks the percentage of Bitcoin supply held in profit and in loss
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This metric isn’t good for calling tops, but it’s very useful for spotting bottoms
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In past cycles, major lows formed when only 35–45% of holders were in profit
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That level means most investors are underwater and sentiment is washed out
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Right now, around 74% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit
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Even after recent declines, the market hasn’t reached historical “max pain” levels
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Bitcoin often rallies before the final bottom, creating convincing but temporary recoveries
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These rallies usually lead to lower highs before the cycle fully resets
Takeaway
Cowen’s message is calm and realistic. The data suggests Bitcoin is still in a late-cycle digestion phase, not at a true bottom yet. Historically, real bottoms arrive when far more people are in loss and confidence is largely gone.
