Benjamin Cowen says we are late in the business cycle, and most business cycles end with a recession. For crypto, that means weakness now could be part of a bigger macro reset.
Key Points
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His macro model suggests we are not at the start of a new cycle, but near the end of the current one.
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Historically, these cycles only fully reset when a recession hits.
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We are not in a recession yet. Jobs data is still stable, but hiring and job openings are weakening.
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Markets usually price in recessions before they are officially announced.
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Risk falls in stages: altcoins drop first, then Bitcoin, then stocks. Defensive sectors like energy hold up longer.
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Bitcoin may already be pricing in a slowdown. A recession, if it comes in the next 1 to 3 years, could mark the final reset.
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s view is simple: this is late-cycle behavior. Recessions tend to end cycles, and markets move ahead of the headlines. Crypto weakness now may be part of that process, not the beginning of a new bull phase.
