Benjamin Cowen believes Ethereum (ETH) may have finally bottomed against Bitcoin (BTC) — a key step historically needed before any true "altseason" can begin. His thesis? ETH needed to break down against USD and return to its fair value (log regression band) for a potential bottom to form on the ETH/BTC chart, and that’s now happened.
Key Takeaways:
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ETH/BTC looks like it's forming a new uptrend (higher lows and higher highs), suggesting ETH may be gaining strength vs BTC.
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Altseason is still not here. Cowen argues that until ETH firmly outperforms BTC, altcoins will continue bleeding in BTC terms.
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Even a small ETH/BTC pullback has historically crushed alts. So if ETH dips again, expect another round of pain for altcoin holders.
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Cowen remains focused on BTC and ETH, staying cautious with altcoins until clearer signs emerge.
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He believes altcoin BTC pairs may revisit range lows (0.25 dominance level) by September or October 2025, regardless of short-term rallies.
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Historical patterns from 2017 and 2019 show similar setups, with altcoins surging briefly before collapsing again.
Cowen’s Position:
He’s leaning into ETH and BTC, still wary of alts. For now, ETH showing strength is a green light for cautious optimism, but altseason isn’t confirmed yet.
