Ethereum’s Next Move: Pain Before Progress?
Benjamin Cowen breaks down Ethereum’s critical price structure and how it mirrors past cycles. Despite investor frustration, ETH may need to suffer more downside before a recovery.
1. ETH’s Logarithmic Regression Trend – A Familiar Pattern
Ethereum is following its historical cycle patterns, slowly dropping into its long-term regression band.
📌 2016, 2019, and now 2025 → ETH first dips into the regression zone, then bottoms out after Bitcoin dominance peaks
📌 Previous cycles show ETH tends to drop deeper into regression before bouncing
📌 Ethereum’s price movement is a direct function of Fed monetary policy
2. ETH/BTC – Why It’s Still Struggling
Ethereum’s biggest problem? Bitcoin dominance is still rising.
For ETH to recover:
✅ The Federal Reserve must pivot away from quantitative tightening
✅ Bitcoin dominance needs to decline, allowing altcoins to shine
✅ ETH must complete its “homecoming” into its final lower support level
Until then, ETH/BTC pairs are likely to continue falling.
3. Ethereum’s Price Levels – Key Ranges to Watch
📌 $1,500 - $1,600 → Major support within the regression trend
📌 $1,000 - $1,200 → Extreme downside (but historically significant)
📌 Breakout above $2,000 → Would signal a shift in market structure
Cowen warns that ETH dropping to $1,500 wouldn’t be the end, as past cycles suggest ETH could briefly dip below $1,200 before bouncing.
4. The Fed’s Role – The Missing Piece for ETH’s Comeback
ETH’s last major breakdowns (2018, 2019) came right before the Fed pivoted away from tightening.
The current expectation is that the Fed won’t end QT until mid-2025, meaning ETH’s recovery may take longer than bulls expect.
5. What This Means for Crypto Investors
✅ Big investors are accumulating top 50 cryptos – Institutions are playing the long game
✅ Bitcoin remains the safer bet until the macro picture changes
✅ ETH’s best buying opportunity may still be ahead if it reaches the $1,200 zone
Final Take: Ethereum’s correction is painful but necessary. If history repeats, ETH will hit a lower support level before recovering. The key catalyst? A Fed policy shift. Until then, expect ETH to remain under pressure, with the best buying opportunities still ahead.
Conclusion: Crypto’s Waiting Game
Both CoinBureau and Benjamin Cowen agree:
📌 Macroeconomic uncertainty is delaying the crypto breakout
📌 Retail investors are under pressure, leaving institutions in control
📌 Patience is key – major opportunities will emerge once the Fed shifts policy
For now, keep watching Bitcoin dominance, ETH’s regression band, and global trade moves - they’ll determine crypto’s next big move. 🚀
