Benjamin Cowen sees Ethereum in a frustrating holding pattern, trading in the same range for months. But that may soon change. In his latest update, Cowen explains why ETH is chopping sideways, what it needs to break out, and how Bitcoin dominance ties into the next major move.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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ETH is range-bound around $4,500 and struggling to break resistance from prior cycle highs
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Cowen expects continued sideways action until the bull market support band (20W SMA + 21W EMA) catches up
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Once it does, ETH will be forced to decide - likely breaking to a new all-time high unless a strong bearish trigger appears
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He warns ETH can lag behind Bitcoin, as seen in 2017 when BTC broke out but ETH waited for technical support
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Bitcoin dominance rising is healthy in his view - it signals capital flowing into the strongest asset before altcoins follow
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A short pullback or pause could still happen if macro surprises hit - e.g., Bank of Japan rate hike or end of the US gov shutdown
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Cowen expects Ethereum to rally into the cycle top, then sees a 2026 bear market beginning after that
Final Takeaway
ETH isn’t ready yet, but the breakout is coming. Cowen’s base case is: more chop, then liftoff - unless macro risk derails it.
