Benjamin Cowen breaks down what Ethereum is likely to do for the rest of the year and why August to October is the period that matters most.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- July is historically a green month for crypto even in midterm years, but August and September have been red every single time in 2018 and 2022, and that window of weakness is coming for Ethereum too
- In 2018 Ethereum dropped 80% from its July high while Bitcoin held support, in 2022 it only dropped 40% and printed a higher low, this cycle will likely land somewhere in between
- Social interest is sitting at 0.25 right now, exactly where it was in July 2018 not 2022, and low social participation was the main reason altcoins got annihilated in August 2018 even while Bitcoin held steady
- The ETH Bitcoin pair keeps getting rejected at the 20 month moving average every three months like clockwork, a rate hike scare in September or October could be the catalyst that pushes it to one final lower low
- If Ethereum is still holding around $1,800 by September and October that would be a much more meaningful signal than where it is today
Takeaway July strength is noise, August to October is the signal. Watch what Ethereum does when Bitcoin faces its next window of weakness because that is when we find out whether this plays out like 2022 or the much uglier 2018.
