Benjamin Cowen returns with a deep dive into Ethereum’s price structure, offering a macro perspective on ETH’s current weakness and the possibility of one last rally before the cycle ends. Despite recent downside pressure, Cowen is still cautiously optimistic.
Key Points – What Cowen Says
-
ETH’s Regression Band Strategy
Cowen explains that Ethereum typically bottoms when it revisits its lower regression band. ETH’s recent April drop hit that zone, making it a better buy than in 2022, even at a higher price. -
ETH vs. BTC Performance
The ETH/BTC pair peaked in mid-August and has since trended lower, aligning with Cowen’s long-standing view that Ethereum struggles against Bitcoin in September and October. -
Final Rally Still Likely
Cowen believes ETH may have one final push to new all-time highs before a likely market top in late 2025 or early 2026. But that window is closing fast, and a continued delay increases the risk of missing it altogether. -
Downside Risks & Tesla Fractal
Comparing Ethereum to Tesla’s price action, Cowen suggests ETH could still drop further - possibly even below $2,000 - before another rally, echoing similar fractal behavior.
Final Takeaway
Cowen's base case remains intact: ETH may bounce from current support and rally once more, but time is running out.
