Cowen looks at ETH through a Bitcoin-led bear market lens. His main point is that Ethereum’s near-term direction is less about ETH fundamentals and more about the market risk Bitcoin is creating right now.
Key Points
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Cowen believes crypto is in a Bitcoin bear market, and that’s the dominant risk for Ethereum
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He argues this cycle topped on apathy, not euphoria, which usually leads to slower, time-based downside instead of a fast crash
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He focuses heavily on ETH/BTC, saying ETH can look fine in USD while still bleeding versus Bitcoin, which is the opportunity cost that matters
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He explains why he only started buying ETH after it “went home” on the BTC pair around April 2025, then rode the move into new highs
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Since ETH peaked earlier than expected and couldn’t follow Bitcoin’s later strength, he thinks the window for fresh all-time highs has likely passed for now
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Base case: ETH drifts down toward “fair value” around the $2,000 area over time, possibly sweeping prior lows before stabilizing
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He compares ETH’s situation to past cycles like 2019, where ETH chopped lower for months while policy stayed too tight for risk assets
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He says meaningful ETH strength usually needs much looser conditions, deeper rate cuts or real QE, and that’s hard to justify while stocks stay strong
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If ETH can reclaim the 21-week EMA and hold it, he’d reconsider, but until then he expects a grind inside the regression zone
Takeaway
Cowen’s call is basically “slow bleed, not capitulation.” He thinks ETH is stuck in a Bitcoin-driven bear market and likely drifts toward fair value before the next real cycle reset, unless it can decisively reclaim key trend levels.
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