ETH Is “Going Home” – What That Really Means
Benjamin Cowen brings a data-heavy, macro-focused breakdown on where Ethereum stands in the current cycle. Spoiler: it’s not looking bullish... yet.
Ethereum’s Process – Bleeding to Fair Value
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ETH is following a familiar path seen in 2016 and 2019 cycles.
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It usually drops 50–60% from breakdown to “home” (aka fair value).
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ETH’s regression band points to $1,500–$1,600 as the likely landing zone.
ETH/BTC Ratio – Still Falling
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ETH is underperforming BTC significantly.
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Historically, ETH/BTC bottoms only after ETH/USD breaks down - so the worst may not be over yet.
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ETH dominance is back down to 8.4%, near cycle lows.
Macro Matters – QT, Recession Risk, and Inflation
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ETH price behavior is tightly tied to Fed policy.
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Cowen compares today’s setup to 1989–1990: a triple top in the S&P followed by a recession.
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The Atlanta Fed is predicting negative Q1 GDP… not a good sign.
The Death Cross Playbook – A Bounce After the Pain?
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Bitcoin is nearing a death cross, which has often led to temporary bottoms.
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ETH could see a relief rally afterward, but only after a deeper downside.
Sentiment is at Rock Bottom – But That’s a Signal, Too
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Social metrics are near all-time lows.
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ETH “risk” level hasn’t yet hit the .3–.4 band that marked previous bottoms.
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Cowen says we’re almost there - but not quite.
Final Take: Ethereum is deep in its downtrend, slowly grinding toward “home.” Cowen sees this as part of the long-term process. Expect more pain in the short term, but history suggests that when ETH finally bottoms, it sets the stage for the next altcoin cycle.
