Benjamin Cowen says Ethereum’s latest rejection from the bear market resistance band suggests more downside could still be ahead.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Cowen believes Ethereum is following a similar structure to the 2019 bear market, where ETH rallied before eventually revisiting lower levels
- He expects Ethereum to move back toward the lower part of its regression band, potentially revisiting the April 2025 lows
- According to Cowen, the ETH/BTC pair continues to weaken because Bitcoin remains the stronger asset fundamentally and structurally
- He argues tighter monetary policy and fading expectations for rate cuts are hurting higher-risk assets like Ethereum the most
- Cowen says rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and possible Bank of Japan rate hikes could create another wave of downside pressure on crypto markets
- While he remains bearish short term, Cowen notes Ethereum could still see a strong counter-trend rally later if recession fears do not fully materialize
- He also points out that Ethereum historically tends to suffer large capitulation moves around periods of tighter global liquidity
Final Takeaway
Cowen believes Ethereum is still stuck in a broader bear market structure and could face another major leg down before a meaningful recovery begins. While he sees potential for a future rebound, his near-term outlook remains cautious as macroeconomic conditions continue to favor Bitcoin over altcoins.
