Benjamin Cowen dives into Ethereum’s long-term price trajectory, using historical patterns and macroeconomic analysis to predict what comes next. His focus is on a Butterfly Harmonic pattern that could shape Ethereum’s future.
1. Ethereum’s Chart Is Following a Predictable Pattern
Key Highlights:
- Cowen has been tracking a Butterfly Harmonic pattern in Ethereum’s price movements.
- This pattern suggests Ethereum is in a cycle where it forms higher lows before a major rally.
- The potential bottom range is between $1,200 and $1,800.
2. The Federal Reserve Will Decide Ethereum’s Fate
Key Highlights:
- Past cycles show that Ethereum bottoms when the Fed stops Quantitative Tightening.
- If the Fed ends QT in mid-2025, Ethereum could start its next big rally just like in 2019.
- Until then, Ethereum may struggle to gain momentum.
3. Could Ethereum Hit $6,000 or More in This Cycle?
Key Highlights:
- If the Butterfly Harmonic pattern plays out, Ethereum’s next major top could be between $6,000 and $7,500.
- These targets align with historical Fibonacci levels.
- However, if Bitcoin peaks early and enters a bear phase, Ethereum may fail to reach these targets and see a weaker rally.
4. What If We’re in a Left-Translated Cycle?
Key Highlights:
- A left-translated cycle means Bitcoin and Ethereum peak early, leading to a longer bear market.
- If this happens, Ethereum could still rally but then crash hard in 2026, similar to past market cycles.
- A US recession in 2026 could accelerate this downturn.
Final Take
Ethereum’s price movements are following a clear historical pattern, but its future depends on the Federal Reserve and Bitcoin’s cycle. If the Fed ends QT soon, Ethereum could rally toward $6,000 or higher. If macro conditions weaken, it may face a harsh correction in 2026.
