In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains that Bitcoin bear markets usually follow a repeatable pattern, especially in midterm years. Instead of guessing one exact bottom, he focuses on two price zones Bitcoin has historically dropped below before a real recovery starts, and why many people tend to turn bearish only when the bottom is already close.
Key Points
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Benjamin says Bitcoin bear markets often drop below two key on-chain levels: the realized price and then the balance price
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Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom near or below the balance price, after first breaking below realized price
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He notes this cycle topped on apathy (people stopped caring), not euphoria, similar to 2019
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Current reference levels he mentions: realized price around 55K, balance price around 40K (and both move over time)
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He suggests a common midterm-year rhythm: weakness early in the year, a counter-trend rally, then another drop later, sometimes in Q4
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He warns bear markets often have strong rallies that make bears look wrong, but then price can still fall again
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His view is that many influencers stay bullish early, then flip bearish late, which often happens near bottoms
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He also argues Bitcoin has been bleeding against gold in midterm years, so gold can look stronger in this phase
Final Takeaway
Benjamin’s outlook is cautious and data-driven: Bitcoin can still go lower, and he thinks it would not be unusual to see it dip below realized price and possibly toward the balance price before a durable bull market returns. He is less focused on one exact number and more focused on the cycle pattern, patience, and not getting fooled by bear market rallies.
