Cowen explains why October still looks like the most likely bottom for Bitcoin, but stresses that markets can always surprise and move faster than expected.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- His base case is still a later bottom (around October), but he reminds that markets don’t follow exact timelines and can bottom earlier if conditions change
- He compares this to past markets, where bottoms often happen in October, but sometimes come earlier, like in 1970 when the bottom came in May after a final drop
- The key idea is to stay flexible, because markets can:
→ Drag out slowly
→ Or drop quickly and bottom sooner than expected - A major mistake investors make is being right at the top, turning bearish, but then never turning bullish again and missing the next cycle
- Cowen emphasizes mindset over predictions:
→ No guarantees in timing
→ Take it step by step
→ Be ready to adapt as data changes - He also reminds that investing is long-term, and the goal is improving life and family outcomes, not just chasing market moves
Final Takeaway
October still looks like the most likely bottom, but it could happen earlier if markets move faster. The real edge is staying flexible, not getting stuck in one view, and being ready to turn bullish again when the time comes.
