Ben Cowen, Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, and Mike McGlone compare Bitcoin, stocks, gold, and bonds. Main idea: money is moving from risky stuff to safer stuff, not the other way around.
Key Points
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Bitcoin often bounces into early March in midterm years
Cowen thinks a short-term pop is possible, but it usually turns into a lower high before dropping again. -
Bigger downside levels they’re watching
Cowen points to the mid-$50Ks (realized price area) as a likely stop, and the low-$40Ks (balance price area) as a deeper “capitulation” zone. -
The pain feels worse because altcoins never really recovered
Melker says this is brutal for altcoin traders since many alts didn’t get a real bounce, while Bitcoin still has a better chance long-term. -
McGlone’s view: sell rallies, don’t buy dips
He thinks crypto is leading risk lower, and any bounce is more of a chance to reduce exposure. -
Gold vs silver looks like “flight to safety”
Gold is holding up better than silver, similar to how Bitcoin used to hold up better than alts. -
Bonds might be the surprise winner
McGlone likes Treasuries as a trade if stocks roll over and volatility picks up.
Final Takeaway
They allow for a short Bitcoin bounce soon, but the bigger picture is still risk-off. If markets keep rolling down the risk curve, the safer trades (bonds, gold) can keep winning while crypto stays choppy.
